Matchup context
Home: Nottingham Forest FC — 11th (P4 W1 D2 L1, GF 4 GA 4, 5 pts, form WDDL). Last five: A Aston Villa FC 2-1 (W), H Tottenham Hotspur FC 0-0 (D), A Liverpool FC 2-2 (D), H Leeds United FC 0-1 (L), H AFC Bournemouth 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.10, defence 0.84 from 20 matches.
Away: Coventry City FC — 20th (P4 W0 D0 L4, GF 0 GA 10, 0 pts, form LLLL). Last five: H Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-5 (L), A Manchester City FC 0-1 (L), H Hull City AFC 0-1 (L), A Arsenal FC 0-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.58, defence 1.36 from 4 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.27 vs 0.60; home 75.3% · draw 16.5% · away 8.2%; most likely score 2-0; over 2.5 goals 54.8%; both teams to score 40.6%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 17:17 UTC): home 1.6 · draw 4.1 · away 5.58; over/under 2.5: 1.78/2.06.