Matchup context
Home: Parma Calcio 1913 — 18th (P4 W0 D1 L3, GF 2 GA 6, 1 pts, form LDLL). Last five: A Como 1907 1-2 (L), H AC Monza 1-1 (D), A Juventus FC 0-2 (L), H Cagliari Calcio 0-1 (L), H US Sassuolo Calcio 1-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.72, defence 1.04 from 20 matches.
Away: Genoa CFC — 19th (P4 W0 D1 L3, GF 2 GA 8, 1 pts, form DLLL). Last five: H Frosinone Calcio 1-1 (D), H Como 1907 1-4 (L), A SS Lazio 0-1 (L), H SSC Napoli 0-2 (L), A US Lecce 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 0.72, defence 1.11 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-18 Parma Calcio 1913 0-0 Genoa CFC; 2025-10-19 Genoa CFC 0-0 Parma Calcio 1913.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.04 vs 0.89; home 38.4% · draw 31.4% · away 30.3%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 30.5%; both teams to score 38.2%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-19 17:17 UTC): home 3.145 · draw 3 · away 2.49; over/under 2.5: 2.465/1.53.