Matchup context
Home: FC Internazionale Milano — 2nd (P5 W4 D1 L0, GF 15 GA 8, 13 pts, form DWWWW). Last five: A AS Roma 2-2 (D), H Udinese Calcio 5-3 (W), H SSC Napoli 3-2 (W), A Cagliari Calcio 1-0 (W), H AC Monza 4-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.79, defence 1.06 from 20 matches.
Away: Parma Calcio 1913 — 15th (P5 W1 D1 L3, GF 4 GA 7, 4 pts, form WLDLL). Last five: H Genoa CFC 2-1 (W), A Como 1907 1-2 (L), H AC Monza 1-1 (D), A Juventus FC 0-2 (L), H Cagliari Calcio 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 0.78, defence 0.99 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-03 FC Internazionale Milano 2-0 Parma Calcio 1913; 2026-01-07 Parma Calcio 1913 0-2 FC Internazionale Milano.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.30 vs 0.98; home 66.9% · draw 18.4% · away 14.7%; most likely score 2-0; over 2.5 goals 63.6%; both teams to score 56.2%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-09 17:17 UTC): home 1.14 · draw 9 · away 18; over/under 2.5: 1.35/3.15.