Matchup context
Home: RB Leipzig — 32nd (P1 W0 D0 L1, GF 1 GA 4, 0 pts, form L). Last five: H Eintracht Frankfurt 6-0 (W), A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0-2 (L), H Hamburger SV 5-0 (W), A Como 1907 1-4 (L), A SV Werder Bremen 1-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.29, defence 0.88 from 20 matches.
Away: PSV — 19th (P1 W0 D1 L0, GF 1 GA 1, 1 pts, form D). Last five: H FK Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 (D), H FC Bayern München 1-2 (L), A Newcastle United FC 0-3 (L), H Club Atlético de Madrid 2-3 (L), A Liverpool FC 4-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.00, defence 1.05 from 9 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1 (domestic ratings)): expected goals 2.52 vs 1.27; home 64.4% · draw 17.8% · away 17.7%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 72.9%; both teams to score 66.2%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-12 23:17 UTC): home 1.745 · draw 4.5 · away 3.99; over/under 2.5: 1.31/3.45.