Matchup context
Home: Bologna FC 1909 — 14th (P6 W1 D2 L3, GF 5 GA 7, 5 pts, form WDLDL). Last five: A US Lecce 2-1 (W), H Torino FC 1-1 (D), A SSC Napoli 0-1 (L), H US Sassuolo Calcio 2-2 (D), A Atalanta BC 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 0.92, defence 0.96 from 20 matches.
Away: FC Internazionale Milano — 1st (P6 W5 D1 L0, GF 18 GA 8, 16 pts, form WDWWW). Last five: H Parma Calcio 1913 3-0 (W), A AS Roma 2-2 (D), H Udinese Calcio 5-3 (W), H SSC Napoli 3-2 (W), A Cagliari Calcio 1-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.77, defence 1.02 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-23 Bologna FC 1909 3-3 FC Internazionale Milano; 2026-01-04 FC Internazionale Milano 3-1 Bologna FC 1909.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.23 vs 1.98; home 23.5% · draw 21.7% · away 54.8%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 62.2%; both teams to score 61%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-16 17:17 UTC): home 5.525 · draw 4.065 · away 1.6; over/under 2.5: 1.67/2.19.