Matchup context
Home: 1. FSV Mainz 05 — 5th (P6 W3 D1 L2, GF 14 GA 10, 10 pts, form WLWLW). Last five: A FC Schalke 04 1-0 (W), H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-4 (L), A Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3 (W), H Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 (L), A Hamburger SV 5-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.11, defence 0.97 from 20 matches.
Away: SV Werder Bremen — 8th (P6 W2 D3 L1, GF 12 GA 12, 9 pts, form DDWDW). Last five: H SC Paderborn 07 2-2 (D), A Borussia Dortmund 2-2 (D), H FC Augsburg 3-2 (W), A 1. FC Köln 1-1 (D), H RB Leipzig 3-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.93, defence 1.05 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-15 SV Werder Bremen 0-2 1. FSV Mainz 05; 2025-11-01 1. FSV Mainz 05 1-1 SV Werder Bremen.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.17 vs 1.30; home 57.3% · draw 20.4% · away 22.3%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 67.2%; both teams to score 64.3%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-23 17:17 UTC): home 1.73 · draw 4.1 · away 4.3; over/under 2.5: 1.5/2.5.