Matchup context
Home: FC Bayern München — 1st (P7 W5 D2 L0, GF 25 GA 6, 17 pts, form WWDWW). Last five: A SC Freiburg 3-1 (W), H RB Leipzig 6-1 (W), A FC Augsburg 2-2 (D), H 1. FC Union Berlin 7-0 (W), A SV 07 Elversberg 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.79, defence 0.77 from 20 matches.
Away: Borussia Dortmund — 2nd (P7 W5 D2 L0, GF 12 GA 4, 17 pts, form WDDWW). Last five: H Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 (W), A 1. FC Union Berlin 0-0 (D), H SV Werder Bremen 2-2 (D), A VfB Stuttgart 1-0 (W), H SC Paderborn 07 3-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.06, defence 0.64 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-28 Borussia Dortmund 2-3 FC Bayern München; 2025-10-18 FC Bayern München 2-1 Borussia Dortmund.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.14 vs 1.17; home 59.4% · draw 20.4% · away 20.2%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 64.2%; both teams to score 60.9%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-30 17:17 UTC): home 1.33 · draw 5.785 · away 8; over/under 2.5: 1.25/3.95.