Matchup context
Home: Sevilla FC — 6th (P11 W5 D2 L4, GF 17 GA 19, 17 pts, form LWLDL). Last five: A Getafe CF 1-3 (L), H CA Osasuna 2-0 (W), A Real Madrid CF 1-4 (L), A Levante UD 3-3 (D), H FC Barcelona 1-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.01, defence 1.12 from 20 matches.
Away: Deportivo Alavés — 11th (P11 W3 D3 L5, GF 15 GA 17, 12 pts, form LDLLD). Last five: A FC Barcelona 1-6 (L), H Málaga CF 1-1 (D), A RC Celta de Vigo 1-2 (L), H Club Atlético de Madrid 1-2 (L), A Athletic Club 0-0 (D). Rating: attack 0.96, defence 1.17 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-14 Sevilla FC 1-1 Deportivo Alavés; 2025-09-20 Deportivo Alavés 1-2 Sevilla FC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.89 vs 1.25; home 52.5% · draw 22.4% · away 25.1%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 60.7%; both teams to score 60.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-05 23:17 UTC): home 1.91 · draw 3.4 · away 4.2; over/under 2.5: 2.17/1.68.
