Matchup context
Home: Parma Calcio 1913 — 15th (P10 W2 D2 L6, GF 8 GA 15, 8 pts, form WDLLL). Last five: A Atalanta BC 3-0 (W), H Udinese Calcio 0-0 (D), A SS Lazio 1-2 (L), H Torino FC 0-3 (L), A FC Internazionale Milano 0-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.77, defence 1.06 from 20 matches.
Away: Bologna FC 1909 — 9th (P10 W4 D2 L4, GF 14 GA 13, 14 pts, form WWWLW). Last five: H AC Monza 2-1 (W), A AC Milan 4-2 (W), A Cagliari Calcio 2-0 (W), H FC Internazionale Milano 1-3 (L), A US Lecce 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.10, defence 1.00 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-08 Bologna FC 1909 0-1 Parma Calcio 1913; 2025-11-02 Parma Calcio 1913 1-3 Bologna FC 1909.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.03 vs 1.44; home 27.2% · draw 26.5% · away 46.3%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 44.8%; both teams to score 49.1%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-06 17:17 UTC): home 4.5 · draw 3.495 · away 1.835; over/under 2.5: 2.13/1.72.