Matchup context
Home: VfB Stuttgart — 12th (P8 W3 D0 L5, GF 14 GA 15, 9 pts, form WLLWL). Last five: A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4-2 (W), H Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-3 (L), A Hamburger SV 0-1 (L), A SC Paderborn 07 2-0 (W), H Borussia Dortmund 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 1.20, defence 1.04 from 20 matches.
Away: SV Werder Bremen — 5th (P8 W4 D3 L1, GF 17 GA 14, 15 pts, form WWDDW). Last five: H TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2-0 (W), A 1. FSV Mainz 05 3-2 (W), H SC Paderborn 07 2-2 (D), A Borussia Dortmund 2-2 (D), H FC Augsburg 3-2 (W). Rating: attack 1.03, defence 0.99 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-26 VfB Stuttgart 1-1 SV Werder Bremen; 2025-12-14 SV Werder Bremen 0-4 VfB Stuttgart.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.20 vs 1.54; home 52.7% · draw 20.4% · away 26.8%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 72.2%; both teams to score 69.9%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-06 17:17 UTC): home 1.65 · draw 4.5 · away 4.38; over/under 2.5: 1.32/3.37.