Matchup context
Home: Brighton & Hove Albion FC — 3rd (P9 W6 D1 L2, GF 24 GA 7, 19 pts, form WLWWW). Last five: A Manchester City FC 1-0 (W), A Liverpool FC 0-2 (L), H Crystal Palace FC 5-0 (W), A Sunderland AFC 2-0 (W), H Arsenal FC 3-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.38, defence 0.76 from 20 matches.
Away: Brentford FC — 7th (P9 W3 D5 L1, GF 16 GA 9, 14 pts, form WDLDW). Last five: H Nottingham Forest FC 2-0 (W), A Hull City AFC 1-1 (D), H Liverpool FC 1-2 (L), A Aston Villa FC 2-2 (D), H Chelsea FC 3-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.10, defence 0.89 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-21 Brentford FC 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC; 2025-11-22 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2-1 Brentford FC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.87 vs 1.02; home 57.4% · draw 22.4% · away 20.2%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 55.2%; both teams to score 54%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-07 17:17 UTC): home 1.86 · draw 3.89 · away 3.85; over/under 2.5: 1.57/2.38.
