Matchup context
Home: Genoa CFC — 12th (P10 W4 D1 L5, GF 10 GA 14, 13 pts, form WWWLW). Last five: A US Lecce 2-1 (W), H Juventus FC 2-0 (W), H Venezia FC 1-0 (W), A AS Roma 0-2 (L), H ACF Fiorentina 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.82, defence 0.96 from 20 matches.
Away: AC Milan — 5th (P10 W6 D3 L1, GF 21 GA 12, 21 pts, form WLWWD). Last five: H FC Internazionale Milano 3-1 (W), H Bologna FC 1909 2-4 (L), A Udinese Calcio 2-0 (W), H Atalanta BC 3-2 (W), A US Sassuolo Calcio 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.24, defence 1.04 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-17 Genoa CFC 1-2 AC Milan; 2026-01-08 AC Milan 1-1 Genoa CFC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.15 vs 1.48; home 29.4% · draw 25.9% · away 44.7%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 48.7%; both teams to score 52.6%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-07 17:17 UTC): home 4.5 · draw 3.5 · away 1.815; over/under 2.5: 2.08/1.75.