Matchup context
Home: SSC Napoli — 12th (P3 W1 D0 L2, GF 5 GA 5, 3 pts, form LLW). Last five: A FC Internazionale Milano 2-3 (L), H Como 1907 1-2 (L), A Genoa CFC 2-0 (W), H Udinese Calcio 1-0 (W), A AC Pisa 1909 3-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.22, defence 0.96 from 20 matches.
Away: Bologna FC 1909 — 16th (P3 W0 D1 L2, GF 2 GA 4, 1 pts, form DLL). Last five: H US Sassuolo Calcio 2-2 (D), A Atalanta BC 0-1 (L), H SS Lazio 0-1 (L), H FC Internazionale Milano 3-3 (D), A Atalanta BC 1-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.92, defence 1.05 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-11 SSC Napoli 2-3 Bologna FC 1909; 2025-11-09 Bologna FC 1909 2-0 SSC Napoli.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.63 vs 1.04; home 51.2% · draw 24.7% · away 24.1%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 49.8%; both teams to score 51.8%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-12 17:17 UTC): home 1.82 · draw 3.525 · away 4.45; over/under 2.5: 2.08/1.725.