Matchup context
Home: Real Madrid CF — 4th (P7 W5 D0 L2, GF 18 GA 8, 15 pts, form LWWLW). Last five: A Club Atlético de Madrid 1-2 (L), A Elche CF 3-2 (W), H Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 4-1 (W), A Real Betis Balompié 0-1 (L), H Málaga CF 4-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.41, defence 0.87 from 20 matches.
Away: Villarreal CF — 9th (P7 W2 D2 L3, GF 13 GA 12, 8 pts, form WWLLL). Last five: H Levante UD 3-1 (W), A Málaga CF 3-1 (W), H Real Betis Balompié 1-2 (L), H RC Deportivo La Coruña 2-3 (L), A Deportivo Alavés 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 1.31, defence 1.09 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-24 Villarreal CF 0-2 Real Madrid CF; 2025-10-04 Real Madrid CF 3-1 Villarreal CF.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.45 vs 1.31; home 62.4% · draw 18.4% · away 19.2%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 72.5%; both teams to score 66.8%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 20 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-09 17:17 UTC): home 1.36 · draw 5.8 · away 7.2; over/under 2.5: 1.29/3.55.