Matchup context
Home: Valencia CF — 19th (P8 W1 D2 L5, GF 6 GA 15, 5 pts, form DLWLL). Last five: A Real Racing Club de Santander 2-2 (D), H Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-3 (L), A Deportivo Alavés 1-0 (W), A Sevilla FC 0-1 (L), H FC Barcelona 0-5 (L). Rating: attack 0.92, defence 1.14 from 20 matches.
Away: Athletic Club — 10th (P6 W2 D2 L2, GF 7 GA 6, 8 pts, form DDWWL). Last five: H Deportivo Alavés 0-0 (D), H Elche CF 1-1 (D), H Club Atlético de Madrid 3-0 (W), A RC Celta de Vigo 2-0 (W), A FC Barcelona 0-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.88, defence 1.03 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-10 Athletic Club 0-1 Valencia CF; 2025-09-20 Valencia CF 2-0 Athletic Club.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.51 vs 1.16; home 45.2% · draw 25.5% · away 29.3%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 50%; both teams to score 53.6%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-16 17:17 UTC): home 3.26 · draw 3.3 · away 2.23; over/under 2.5: 2.04/1.765.