Matchup context
Home: 1. FC Köln — 12th (P6 W2 D1 L3, GF 8 GA 11, 7 pts, form LWLDL). Last five: A Eintracht Frankfurt 0-1 (L), H Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 (W), A Hamburger SV 1-2 (L), H SV Werder Bremen 1-1 (D), A VfB Stuttgart 1-4 (L). Rating: attack 0.88, defence 1.17 from 20 matches.
Away: FC Schalke 04 — 15th (P6 W1 D2 L3, GF 4 GA 7, 5 pts, form LLDWD). Last five: H 1. FSV Mainz 05 0-1 (L), A SC Freiburg 1-2 (L), H SV 07 Elversberg 0-0 (D), A 1. FC Union Berlin 3-1 (W), H FC Bayern München 0-0 (D). Rating: attack 0.70, defence 0.85 from 6 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.38 vs 1.18; home 41.5% · draw 26.4% · away 32%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 47.3%; both teams to score 51.9%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-23 17:17 UTC): home 2.05 · draw 3.775 · away 3.325; over/under 2.5: 1.61/2.265.