Matchup context
Home: Tottenham Hotspur FC — 17th (P4 W0 D2 L2, GF 0 GA 5, 2 pts, form DDLL). Last five: H Everton FC 0-0 (D), A Nottingham Forest FC 0-0 (D), H Newcastle United FC 0-2 (L), A Brentford FC 0-3 (L), H Everton FC 1-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.67, defence 1.03 from 20 matches.
Away: Aston Villa FC — 19th (P4 W0 D1 L3, GF 1 GA 7, 1 pts, form LDLL). Last five: H Nottingham Forest FC 1-2 (L), A Hull City AFC 0-0 (D), H Arsenal FC 0-1 (L), A Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-4 (L), A Manchester City FC 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.90, defence 1.12 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-03 Aston Villa FC 1-2 Tottenham Hotspur FC; 2025-10-19 Tottenham Hotspur FC 1-2 Aston Villa FC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.14 vs 1.15; home 35.5% · draw 28.5% · away 36%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 39.9%; both teams to score 46.3%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 11:17 UTC): home 2.015 · draw 3.6 · away 3.685; over/under 2.5: 1.8/2.02.