Matchup context
Home: SC Paderborn 07 — 16th (P3 W0 D1 L2, GF 0 GA 4, 1 pts, form LLD). Last five: A Borussia Dortmund 0-3 (L), H SC Freiburg 0-1 (L), A 1. FSV Mainz 05 0-0 (D). Rating: attack 0.65, defence 0.93 from 3 matches.
Away: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — 13th (P3 W1 D0 L2, GF 6 GA 7, 3 pts, form WLL). Last five: H VfB Stuttgart 2-1 (W), H Borussia Dortmund 2-3 (L), A 1. FC Köln 2-3 (L), A Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-4 (L), H SV Werder Bremen 1-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.03, defence 1.16 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.39 vs 1.40; home 37% · draw 25.4% · away 37.6%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 52.7%; both teams to score 56.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-19 17:17 UTC): home 4.47 · draw 4.4 · away 1.67; over/under 2.5: 1.44/2.77.