Matchup context
Home: 1. FSV Mainz 05 — 6th (P4 W2 D1 L1, GF 10 GA 6, 7 pts, form WLWD). Last five: A Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3 (W), H Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 (L), A Hamburger SV 5-0 (W), H SC Paderborn 07 0-0 (D), A 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 2-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.12, defence 0.93 from 20 matches.
Away: Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 5th (P4 W2 D1 L1, GF 10 GA 5, 7 pts, form WDWL). Last five: H RB Leipzig 2-0 (W), A FC Augsburg 2-2 (D), H 1. FC Union Berlin 4-0 (W), A SV 07 Elversberg 2-3 (L), H Hamburger SV 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.23, defence 0.88 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-28 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1-1 1. FSV Mainz 05; 2025-10-18 1. FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.82 vs 1.66; home 42.3% · draw 22.3% · away 35.4%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 67.5%; both teams to score 67.8%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-09 11:17 UTC): home 2.95 · draw 3.875 · away 2.195; over/under 2.5: 1.44/2.75.