Matchup context
Home: Brighton & Hove Albion FC — 3rd (P6 W4 D1 L1, GF 18 GA 5, 13 pts, form WWWDL). Last five: A Sunderland AFC 2-0 (W), H Arsenal FC 3-0 (W), A Coventry City FC 5-0 (W), H Leeds United FC 1-1 (D), A Chelsea FC 3-4 (L). Rating: attack 1.34, defence 0.78 from 20 matches.
Away: Crystal Palace FC — 12th (P6 W2 D1 L3, GF 9 GA 12, 7 pts, form WDLWL). Last five: H Nottingham Forest FC 3-1 (W), A Leeds United FC 0-0 (D), H Ipswich Town FC 2-3 (L), A Fulham FC 3-2 (W), H Manchester City FC 1-4 (L). Rating: attack 0.96, defence 1.21 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-08 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-1 Crystal Palace FC; 2025-11-09 Crystal Palace FC 0-0 Brighton & Hove Albion FC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.48 vs 0.93; home 71.2% · draw 16.7% · away 12.2%; most likely score 2-0; over 2.5 goals 66.2%; both teams to score 55.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-17 11:17 UTC): home 1.51 · draw 4.6 · away 5.65; over/under 2.5: 1.55/2.45.