Matchup context
Home: Udinese Calcio — 17th (P9 W1 D2 L6, GF 9 GA 18, 5 pts, form DLLLL). Last five: A Parma Calcio 1913 0-0 (D), H AC Milan 0-2 (L), H US Lecce 0-3 (L), A Torino FC 1-2 (L), H Cagliari Calcio 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 0.85, defence 1.13 from 20 matches.
Away: AS Roma — 3rd (P9 W6 D3 L0, GF 23 GA 8, 21 pts, form WDWDD). Last five: H Cagliari Calcio 4-2 (W), A SSC Napoli 3-3 (D), H Genoa CFC 2-0 (W), A Como 1907 0-0 (D), H FC Internazionale Milano 2-2 (D). Rating: attack 1.58, defence 0.84 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-02 Udinese Calcio 1-0 AS Roma; 2025-11-09 AS Roma 2-0 Udinese Calcio.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 0.96 vs 2.19; home 15.4% · draw 19.3% · away 65.3%; most likely score 0-2; over 2.5 goals 60.8%; both teams to score 54.7%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-30 17:17 UTC): home 5.54 · draw 4.4 · away 1.55; over/under 2.5: 1.625/2.27.
