Matchup context
Home: Borussia Dortmund — 1st (P4 W4 D0 L0, GF 9 GA 2, 12 pts, form WWWW). Last five: A VfB Stuttgart 1-0 (W), H SC Paderborn 07 3-0 (W), A TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 (W), H Hamburger SV 2-0 (W), A SV Werder Bremen 2-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.20, defence 0.67 from 20 matches.
Away: SV Werder Bremen — 8th (P4 W2 D1 L1, GF 8 GA 8, 7 pts, form WDWL). Last five: H FC Augsburg 3-2 (W), A 1. FC Köln 1-1 (D), H RB Leipzig 3-1 (W), A SC Freiburg 1-4 (L), H Borussia Dortmund 0-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.86, defence 1.03 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-16 SV Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund; 2026-01-13 Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SV Werder Bremen.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.29 vs 0.83; home 70.2% · draw 17.8% · away 12%; most likely score 2-0; over 2.5 goals 60.4%; both teams to score 50.8%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-08 23:17 UTC): home 1.31 · draw 5.9 · away 8.51; over/under 2.5: 1.39/2.97.