Matchup context
Home: Villarreal CF — 11th (P8 W2 D2 L4, GF 13 GA 13, 8 pts, form LWWLL). Last five: A Real Madrid CF 0-1 (L), H Levante UD 3-1 (W), A Málaga CF 3-1 (W), H Real Betis Balompié 1-2 (L), H RC Deportivo La Coruña 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.24, defence 1.03 from 20 matches.
Away: Elche CF — 18th (P8 W1 D3 L4, GF 11 GA 17, 6 pts, form DWLDL). Last five: H RC Celta de Vigo 0-0 (D), A RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 3-1 (W), H Real Madrid CF 2-3 (L), A Athletic Club 1-1 (D), H Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.98, defence 1.17 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-08 Villarreal CF 2-1 Elche CF; 2026-01-03 Elche CF 1-3 Villarreal CF.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.33 vs 1.16; home 63.4% · draw 18.9% · away 17.7%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 67.8%; both teams to score 62.1%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-16 11:17 UTC): home 1.44 · draw 4.9 · away 6.3; over/under 2.5: 1.46/2.7.