Matchup context
Home: 1. FSV Mainz 05 — 5th (P2 W1 D1 L0, GF 5 GA 0, 4 pts, form WD). Last five: A Hamburger SV 5-0 (W), H SC Paderborn 07 0-0 (D), A 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 2-0 (W), H 1. FC Union Berlin 1-3 (L), A FC St. Pauli 1910 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.06, defence 0.80 from 20 matches.
Away: Eintracht Frankfurt — 13th (P2 W0 D1 L1, GF 4 GA 7, 1 pts, form LD). Last five: H FC Augsburg 1-4 (L), A 1. FC Union Berlin 3-3 (D), H VfB Stuttgart 2-2 (D), A Borussia Dortmund 2-3 (L), H Hamburger SV 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.98, defence 1.19 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-22 1. FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt; 2025-11-09 Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 1. FSV Mainz 05.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.29 vs 1.15; home 62.7% · draw 19.2% · away 18.1%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 66.7%; both teams to score 61.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-11 11:17 UTC): home 1.955 · draw 3.925 · away 3.425; over/under 2.5: 1.47/2.62.