Matchup context
Home: AFC Bournemouth — 16th (P4 W0 D3 L1, GF 6 GA 7, 3 pts, form DDDL). Last five: H Brentford FC 2-2 (D), A Newcastle United FC 2-2 (D), H Everton FC 1-1 (D), A Manchester City FC 1-2 (L), A Nottingham Forest FC 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.04, defence 0.87 from 20 matches.
Away: Liverpool FC — 10th (P4 W1 D3 L0, GF 6 GA 4, 6 pts, form DWDD). Last five: H Fulham FC 0-0 (D), A Ipswich Town FC 2-0 (W), H Nottingham Forest FC 2-2 (D), A Newcastle United FC 2-2 (D), H Brentford FC 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.15, defence 0.99 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-24 AFC Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool FC; 2025-08-15 Liverpool FC 4-2 AFC Bournemouth.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.58 vs 1.23; home 45.4% · draw 24.8% · away 29.8%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 53.3%; both teams to score 56.3%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-19 17:17 UTC): home 3.1 · draw 3.8 · away 2.15; over/under 2.5: 1.49/2.6.