Matchup context
Home: 1. FC Köln — 14th (P4 W1 D1 L2, GF 6 GA 9, 4 pts, form LDLW). Last five: A Hamburger SV 1-2 (L), H SV Werder Bremen 1-1 (D), A VfB Stuttgart 1-4 (L), H TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 (W), A FC Bayern München 1-5 (L). Rating: attack 0.91, defence 1.23 from 20 matches.
Away: Borussia Mönchengladbach — 18th (P4 W0 D0 L4, GF 6 GA 16, 0 pts, form LLLL). Last five: H 1. FSV Mainz 05 3-4 (L), A SC Freiburg 0-5 (L), H SV 07 Elversberg 3-4 (L), A RB Leipzig 0-3 (L), H TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 4-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.89, defence 1.24 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-21 1. FC Köln 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach; 2025-11-08 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 1. FC Köln.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.07 vs 1.61; home 48.7% · draw 21.1% · away 30.2%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 71.2%; both teams to score 69.9%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-10 11:17 UTC): home 2.05 · draw 3.8 · away 3.25; over/under 2.5: 1.5/2.58.