Matchup context
Home: Manchester United FC — 13th (P7 W1 D4 L2, GF 10 GA 10, 7 pts, form DDDLD). Last five: A Leeds United FC 1-1 (D), H Tottenham Hotspur FC 1-1 (D), A Fulham FC 1-1 (D), H Manchester City FC 0-1 (L), A Everton FC 2-2 (D). Rating: attack 1.12, defence 0.91 from 20 matches.
Away: AFC Bournemouth — 15th (P7 W1 D3 L3, GF 9 GA 13, 6 pts, form WLLDD). Last five: H Sunderland AFC 2-0 (W), A Chelsea FC 1-5 (L), H Liverpool FC 0-1 (L), H Brentford FC 2-2 (D), A Newcastle United FC 2-2 (D). Rating: attack 0.97, defence 0.98 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-20 AFC Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United FC; 2025-12-15 Manchester United FC 4-4 AFC Bournemouth.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.69 vs 1.08; home 51.6% · draw 24.1% · away 24.3%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 52.5%; both teams to score 54%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC): home 2.2 · draw 3.65 · away 3.1; over/under 2.5: 1.62/2.245.