Matchup context
Home: AFC Bournemouth — 13th (P8 W2 D3 L3, GF 12 GA 13, 9 pts, form WWLLD). Last five: A Manchester United FC 3-0 (W), H Sunderland AFC 2-0 (W), A Chelsea FC 1-5 (L), H Liverpool FC 0-1 (L), H Brentford FC 2-2 (D). Rating: attack 1.04, defence 0.92 from 20 matches.
Away: Leeds United FC — 7th (P8 W2 D5 L1, GF 9 GA 6, 11 pts, form DDLDW). Last five: A Sunderland AFC 0-0 (D), H Manchester United FC 1-1 (D), A Arsenal FC 1-2 (L), H Crystal Palace FC 0-0 (D), H Newcastle United FC 4-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.86, defence 0.74 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-22 AFC Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds United FC; 2025-09-27 Leeds United FC 2-2 AFC Bournemouth.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.17 vs 0.98; home 40.2% · draw 29.3% · away 30.5%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 36.6%; both teams to score 43.2%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-30 17:17 UTC): home 2.1 · draw 3.41 · away 3.53; over/under 2.5: 1.88/1.94.
