Matchup context
Home: US Sassuolo Calcio — 15th (P9 W2 D2 L5, GF 14 GA 22, 8 pts, form LLLDL). Last five: H SS Lazio 2-6 (L), A Como 1907 0-2 (L), A Frosinone Calcio 2-4 (L), H AC Milan 1-1 (D), A AC Monza 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 1.04, defence 1.44 from 20 matches.
Away: ACF Fiorentina — 17th (P9 W1 D2 L6, GF 11 GA 21, 5 pts, form DLLLD). Last five: H Atalanta BC 2-2 (D), A FC Internazionale Milano 1-2 (L), H Como 1907 1-3 (L), A Genoa CFC 1-2 (L), H SSC Napoli 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 0.92, defence 1.22 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-26 ACF Fiorentina 0-0 US Sassuolo Calcio; 2025-12-06 US Sassuolo Calcio 3-1 ACF Fiorentina.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.72 vs 1.63; home 40.5% · draw 22.8% · away 36.7%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 65.1%; both teams to score 66.1%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-01 23:17 UTC): home 2.85 · draw 3.68 · away 2.32; over/under 2.5: 1.55/2.41.