Matchup context
Home: Sunderland AFC — 20th (P9 W1 D2 L6, GF 7 GA 17, 5 pts, form LDLLL). Last five: A Coventry City FC 1-3 (L), H Leeds United FC 0-0 (D), A AFC Bournemouth 0-2 (L), H Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-2 (L), A Manchester City FC 3-5 (L). Rating: attack 0.80, defence 1.17 from 20 matches.
Away: Chelsea FC — 4th (P9 W5 D1 L3, GF 19 GA 15, 16 pts, form WLWWL). Last five: H Manchester United FC 2-0 (W), H Tottenham Hotspur FC 0-2 (L), A Everton FC 2-0 (W), H AFC Bournemouth 5-1 (W), A Brentford FC 0-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.11, defence 1.16 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-24 Sunderland AFC 2-1 Chelsea FC; 2025-10-25 Chelsea FC 1-2 Sunderland AFC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.42 vs 1.58; home 34.4% · draw 24.2% · away 41.4%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 57.7%; both teams to score 60.2%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-11-07 17:17 UTC): home 3.73 · draw 3.67 · away 1.97; over/under 2.5: 1.805/2.02.