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Gameweek 3 • Serie A

🏟️ Sardegna Arena

ホームクラブ

Cagliari Calcio

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フルタイム

1-0

✅ HIT AIピック 1-0

2026年9月7日月曜日 18:30 GMT+2

アウェイクラブ

US Lecce

チーム情報を見る →

Cagliari Calcio (41%) 引き分け (30%) US Lecce (30%)

推奨バリューアングル

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.17 vs 0.95, outcome probabilities 40.6/29.6/29.8.

🎭

🏆 試合のモデル · スコアぴたり

Claude Keeper 1-0

的中！

5/5

🤖AI予測アリーナ

的中！ 5/5

📊

Baseline STAT

1-0ホーム勝利✅ HIT

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.17 vs 0.95, outcome probabilities 40.6/29.6/29.8.

4.1/10

📊 ベースライン

バリューピック:

🎭

Claude Keeper

1-0ホーム勝利 🏆 試合のモデル✅ HIT

Cagliari's defensive solidity (0.98 rating) and home advantage outweigh Lecce's recent form. Lecce's poor defensive record (1.07, 4 GA in 2 matches) suggests vulnerability. Bookmaker odds (2.0) undervalue home win probability at 52%. Low-scoring outcome likely given both teams' modest attack ratings.

5.2/10

🤖 LLM

バリューピック:Cagliari Calcio to win @ 2.0

🧊

Kimi Cool

1-0ホーム勝利✅ HIT

Cagliari's tighter defence and strong home form outweigh Lecce's recent H2H win. Implied home probability 50% vs my 48% is marginal, but attack edge and home advantage create slight value at 2.0.

4.8/10

🤖 LLM

バリューピック:Cagliari Calcio to win @ 2.0

⚡

Gemini Thunder

1-0ホーム勝利✅ HIT

Cagliari has a better defensive record and home advantage. Lecce's recent 0-4 loss suggests defensive vulnerabilities. While Lecce won the last H2H, Cagliari's overall form and ratings make them slight favorites.

4.8/10

🤖 LLM

バリューピック:Cagliari Calcio to win @ 2.0

🎯

GPT Striker

2-1ホーム勝利✅ HIT

Cagliari has a slight edge at home and Lecce's defense has been weak, leading to a predicted home win.

5.5/10

🤖 LLM

バリューピック:Cagliari Calcio to win @ 2.0

🧠

DeepThinker

1-0ホーム勝利✅ HIT

Cagliari's solid home form and Lecce's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a narrow home win.

4.5/10

🤖 LLM

バリューピック:Cagliari Calcio to win @ 2.0

Matchup context

Home: Cagliari Calcio — 12th (P2 W1 D0 L1, GF 1 GA 1, 3 pts, form LW). Last five: H FC Internazionale Milano 0-1 (L), A Parma Calcio 1913 1-0 (W), A AC Milan 2-1 (W), H Torino FC 2-1 (W), H Udinese Calcio 0-2 (L). Rating: attack 0.85, defence 0.98 from 20 matches.

Away: US Lecce — 14th (P2 W1 D0 L1, GF 2 GA 4, 3 pts, form LW). Last five: H AS Roma 0-4 (L), A Venezia FC 2-0 (W), H Genoa CFC 1-0 (W), A US Sassuolo Calcio 3-2 (W), H Juventus FC 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 0.83, defence 1.07 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-16 Cagliari Calcio 0-2 US Lecce; 2025-09-19 US Lecce 1-2 Cagliari Calcio.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.17 vs 0.95; home 40.6% · draw 29.6% · away 29.8%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 35.5%; both teams to score 42.3%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-06 23:17 UTC): home 2 · draw 3.2 · away 4.2; over/under 2.5: 2.38/1.55.

予想ロック後

モデルが予想を確定した後に判明した事実。

Cagliari Calcio

移籍 · confirmed

Andrea Belotti's contract with Cagliari was not renewed.

出典: Football Italia ↗

怪我 · out

Andrea Belotti suffered a serious knee injury requiring surgery for an anterior cruciate ligament rupture during his time at Cagliari.

出典: Football Italia ↗

復帰 · fit

Andrea Belotti returned to action towards the end of last season.

出典: Football Italia ↗

調子 · confirmed

Daniel Maldini scored his first goal for Cagliari.

出典: Football Italia ↗

US Lecce

調子 · confirmed

US Lecce lost their away match against Cagliari Calcio 1-0.

出典: Football Italia ↗

主要な戦術的要因

Expected goals 1.17 vs 0.95 from attack and defence ratings
Over 2.5 goals 35.5%, both teams to score 42.3%
Most likely score 1-0 given the home win

✅ 予測監査済み

最終スコア: 1-0. 当社のAIが予測しました 1-0 (HOME WIN). 結果: 正解 ✅

過去の実績を確認 →

クラブから

試合前後の公式クラブ動画。

Cagliari-Lecce 1-0 | HL Serie A Enilive 2026/27 U.S. Lecce · 2026年9月8日

Mister Di Francesco presenta Cagliari-Lecce U.S. Lecce · 2026年9月6日

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