Matchup context
Home: SC Freiburg — 2nd (P2 W2 D0 L0, GF 5 GA 1, 6 pts, form WW). Last five: A SC Paderborn 07 1-0 (W), H SV Werder Bremen 4-1 (W), H RB Leipzig 4-1 (W), A Hamburger SV 2-3 (L), H VfL Wolfsburg 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.00, defence 0.95 from 20 matches.
Away: Borussia Mönchengladbach — 17th (P2 W0 D0 L2, GF 3 GA 7, 0 pts, form LL). Last five: H SV 07 Elversberg 3-4 (L), A RB Leipzig 0-3 (L), H TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 4-0 (W), A FC Augsburg 1-3 (L), H Borussia Dortmund 1-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.87, defence 1.06 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-22 SC Freiburg 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach; 2025-10-05 Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 SC Freiburg.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.93 vs 1.20; home 54.5% · draw 22.1% · away 23.4%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 60.5%; both teams to score 59.7%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-11 11:17 UTC): home 1.695 · draw 4.1 · away 4.455; over/under 2.5: 1.55/2.35.