Matchup context
Home: Como 1907 — 6th (P3 W2 D1 L0, GF 7 GA 3, 7 pts, form WWD). Last five: A Genoa CFC 4-1 (W), A SSC Napoli 2-1 (W), A Udinese Calcio 1-1 (D), A US Cremonese 4-1 (W), H Parma Calcio 1913 1-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.47, defence 0.76 from 20 matches.
Away: Parma Calcio 1913 — 17th (P3 W0 D1 L2, GF 1 GA 4, 1 pts, form DLL). Last five: H AC Monza 1-1 (D), A Juventus FC 0-2 (L), H Cagliari Calcio 0-1 (L), H US Sassuolo Calcio 1-0 (W), A Como 1907 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 0.70, defence 1.04 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-17 Como 1907 1-0 Parma Calcio 1913; 2025-10-25 Parma Calcio 1913 0-0 Como 1907.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.96 vs 0.63; home 69% · draw 20% · away 10.9%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 47.9%; both teams to score 40.1%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-13 17:17 UTC): home 1.22 · draw 6.3 · away 14.26; over/under 2.5: 1.615/2.23.