Matchup context
Home: Leeds United FC — 11th (P3 W1 D2 L0, GF 3 GA 2, 5 pts, form DDW). Last five: A Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1-1 (D), H Brentford FC 1-1 (D), A Nottingham Forest FC 1-0 (W), A West Ham United 0-3 (L), H Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.89, defence 0.81 from 20 matches.
Away: Newcastle United FC — 10th (P3 W1 D2 L0, GF 6 GA 4, 5 pts, form DWD). Last five: H AFC Bournemouth 2-2 (D), A Tottenham Hotspur FC 2-0 (W), H Liverpool FC 2-2 (D), A Fulham FC 0-2 (L), H West Ham United 3-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.04, defence 1.07 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-07 Newcastle United FC 4-3 Leeds United FC; 2025-08-30 Leeds United FC 0-0 Newcastle United FC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.44 vs 1.04; home 46.3% · draw 26.4% · away 27.3%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 45.3%; both teams to score 49.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-13 17:17 UTC): home 2.3 · draw 3.5 · away 3.04; over/under 2.5: 1.78/2.05.