Matchup context
Home: Getafe CF — 16th (P6 W1 D2 L3, GF 3 GA 7, 5 pts, form LDDLW). Last five: A Real Betis Balompié 0-1 (L), H RC Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 (D), H RC Celta de Vigo 1-1 (D), A CA Osasuna 0-1 (L), H Real Racing Club de Santander 1-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.66, defence 0.77 from 20 matches.
Away: Málaga CF — 20th (P6 W0 D3 L3, GF 3 GA 11, 3 pts, form LDDLD). Last five: H Villarreal CF 1-3 (L), A RC Celta de Vigo 1-1 (D), H Levante UD 0-0 (D), A Real Madrid CF 0-4 (L), H RC Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 0.69, defence 1.18 from 6 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.23 vs 0.61; home 51.2% · draw 30.3% · away 18.5%; most likely score 1-0; over 2.5 goals 27.9%; both teams to score 32.3%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-19 17:17 UTC): home 2.05 · draw 3.02 · away 4.3; over/under 2.5: 2.75/1.44.