Matchup context
Home: RB Leipzig — 9th (P4 W2 D0 L2, GF 9 GA 5, 6 pts, form LWLW). Last five: A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0-2 (L), H Hamburger SV 5-0 (W), A SV Werder Bremen 1-3 (L), H Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-0 (W), A SC Freiburg 1-4 (L). Rating: attack 1.15, defence 0.92 from 20 matches.
Away: Eintracht Frankfurt — 10th (P4 W1 D2 L1, GF 9 GA 10, 5 pts, form DWLD). Last five: H SC Freiburg 2-2 (D), A 1. FSV Mainz 05 3-1 (W), H FC Augsburg 1-4 (L), A 1. FC Union Berlin 3-3 (D), H VfB Stuttgart 2-2 (D). Rating: attack 1.02, defence 1.13 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-18 Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 RB Leipzig; 2025-12-06 RB Leipzig 6-0 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.38 vs 1.37; home 60% · draw 19% · away 21%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 72.3%; both teams to score 67.6%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-09 17:17 UTC): home 1.57 · draw 4.8 · away 4.8; over/under 2.5: 1.28/3.7.