Matchup context
Home: SC Freiburg — 3rd (P4 W3 D1 L0, GF 12 GA 3, 10 pts, form DWWW). Last five: A Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 (D), H Borussia Mönchengladbach 5-0 (W), A SC Paderborn 07 1-0 (W), H SV Werder Bremen 4-1 (W), H RB Leipzig 4-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.13, defence 0.90 from 20 matches.
Away: FC Schalke 04 — 13th (P4 W1 D2 L1, GF 3 GA 4, 5 pts, form DWDL). Last five: H SV 07 Elversberg 0-0 (D), A 1. FC Union Berlin 3-1 (W), H FC Bayern München 0-0 (D), A FC Augsburg 0-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.78, defence 0.82 from 4 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.71 vs 1.02; home 53.4% · draw 24% · away 22.6%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 51.4%; both teams to score 52.4%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-10 17:17 UTC): home 1.62 · draw 4 · away 5.3; over/under 2.5: 1.625/2.25.