Matchup context
Home: Arsenal FC — 16th (P1 W1 D0 L0, GF 1 GA 0, 3 pts, form W). Last five: H Leeds United FC 2-1 (W), A Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-3 (L), A Sunderland AFC 2-0 (W), A SSC Napoli 1-0 (W), H Chelsea FC 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.10, defence 0.63 from 16 matches.
Away: Lille OSC — 23rd (P1 W0 D0 L1, GF 2 GA 3, 0 pts, form L). Last five: H Real Betis Balompié 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.99, defence 1.15 from 1 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.59 vs 0.93; home 73.1% · draw 15.7% · away 11.2%; most likely score 2-0; over 2.5 goals 68.2%; both teams to score 55.9%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-12 23:17 UTC): home 1.215 · draw 6.6 · away 13.51; over/under 2.5: 1.57/2.42.