Matchup context
Home: Eintracht Frankfurt — 14th (P5 W1 D2 L2, GF 9 GA 16, 5 pts, form LDWLD). Last five: A RB Leipzig 0-6 (L), H SC Freiburg 2-2 (D), A 1. FSV Mainz 05 3-1 (W), H FC Augsburg 1-4 (L), A 1. FC Union Berlin 3-3 (D). Rating: attack 0.97, defence 1.25 from 20 matches.
Away: 1. FC Köln — 10th (P5 W2 D1 L2, GF 8 GA 10, 7 pts, form WLDLW). Last five: H Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 (W), A Hamburger SV 1-2 (L), H SV Werder Bremen 1-1 (D), A VfB Stuttgart 1-4 (L), H TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 (W). Rating: attack 0.92, defence 1.20 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-05 Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 1. FC Köln; 2025-11-22 1. FC Köln 3-4 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.15 vs 1.69; home 48.8% · draw 20.7% · away 30.6%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 73.8%; both teams to score 72.1%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-15 23:17 UTC): home 1.92 · draw 4.09 · away 3.45; over/under 2.5: 1.36/3.1.