Matchup context
Home: AS Roma — 3rd (P6 W4 D2 L0, GF 14 GA 3, 14 pts, form DDWWW). Last five: A Como 1907 0-0 (D), H FC Internazionale Milano 2-2 (D), A Torino FC 2-0 (W), H Atalanta BC 2-1 (W), A US Lecce 4-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.52, defence 0.76 from 20 matches.
Away: Genoa CFC — 17th (P6 W1 D1 L4, GF 5 GA 11, 4 pts, form WLDLL). Last five: H ACF Fiorentina 2-1 (W), A Parma Calcio 1913 1-2 (L), H Frosinone Calcio 1-1 (D), H Como 1907 1-4 (L), A SS Lazio 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 0.77, defence 1.08 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-08 Genoa CFC 2-1 AS Roma; 2025-12-29 AS Roma 3-1 Genoa CFC.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.16 vs 0.68; home 71.4% · draw 18.2% · away 10.4%; most likely score 2-0; over 2.5 goals 54.1%; both teams to score 43.8%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-16 17:17 UTC): home 1.53 · draw 4.19 · away 6.2; over/under 2.5: 1.8/2.