Matchup context
Home: 1. FC Union Berlin — 16th (P5 W1 D1 L3, GF 5 GA 17, 4 pts, form WLLLD). Last five: H SV 07 Elversberg 1-0 (W), A FC Bayern München 0-7 (L), H FC Schalke 04 1-3 (L), A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0-4 (L), H Eintracht Frankfurt 3-3 (D). Rating: attack 0.85, defence 1.32 from 20 matches.
Away: Borussia Dortmund — 2nd (P5 W4 D1 L0, GF 11 GA 4, 13 pts, form DWWWW). Last five: H SV Werder Bremen 2-2 (D), A VfB Stuttgart 1-0 (W), H SC Paderborn 07 3-0 (W), A TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 (W), H Hamburger SV 2-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.18, defence 0.72 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-01-24 1. FC Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund; 2025-08-31 Borussia Dortmund 3-0 1. FC Union Berlin.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.13 vs 2.27; home 17.9% · draw 19.3% · away 62.9%; most likely score 1-2; over 2.5 goals 65.9%; both teams to score 60.7%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-16 11:17 UTC): home 5.2 · draw 4.4 · away 1.57; over/under 2.5: 1.5/2.58.