Matchup context
Home: Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 4th (P5 W3 D1 L1, GF 14 GA 8, 10 pts, form WWDWL). Last five: A 1. FSV Mainz 05 4-3 (W), H RB Leipzig 2-0 (W), A FC Augsburg 2-2 (D), H 1. FC Union Berlin 4-0 (W), A SV 07 Elversberg 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.30, defence 0.94 from 20 matches.
Away: SC Freiburg — 2nd (P5 W4 D1 L0, GF 14 GA 4, 13 pts, form WDWWW). Last five: H FC Schalke 04 2-1 (W), A Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 (D), H Borussia Mönchengladbach 5-0 (W), A SC Paderborn 07 1-0 (W), H SV Werder Bremen 4-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.13, defence 0.89 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-07 SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen; 2025-10-26 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-0 SC Freiburg.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.14 vs 1.55; home 51.3% · draw 20.8% · away 27.9%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 71.2%; both teams to score 69.5%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 23 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-17 11:17 UTC): home 1.67 · draw 4.3 · away 4.46; over/under 2.5: 1.46/2.68.