Matchup context
Home: VfB Stuttgart — 4th (P2 W2 D0 L0, GF 6 GA 1, 6 pts, form WW). Last five: A Hamburger SV 0-1 (L), A ŠK Slovan Bratislava 3-0 (W), A SC Paderborn 07 2-0 (W), H Borussia Dortmund 0-1 (L), A TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 (L). Rating: attack 1.12, defence 0.97 from 20 matches.
Away: Club Atlético de Madrid — 15th (P2 W1 D0 L1, GF 3 GA 2, 3 pts, form WL). Last five: A RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1-0 (W), H Manchester United FC 2-0 (W), A Deportivo Alavés 2-1 (W), H Real Madrid CF 2-1 (W), H CA Osasuna 4-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.05, defence 0.90 from 18 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1 (domestic ratings)): expected goals 1.97 vs 1.52; home 48.3% · draw 21.8% · away 29.9%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 67.8%; both teams to score 67.3%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-19 17:17 UTC): home 3.23 · draw 3.815 · away 2.11; over/under 2.5: 1.47/2.7.