Matchup context
Home: SSC Napoli — 9th (P7 W3 D1 L3, GF 10 GA 7, 10 pts, form LWDWL). Last five: A Venezia FC 0-1 (L), H Frosinone Calcio 3-0 (W), A ACF Fiorentina 1-1 (D), H Bologna FC 1909 1-0 (W), A FC Internazionale Milano 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.12, defence 0.80 from 20 matches.
Away: AS Roma — 3rd (P7 W5 D2 L0, GF 16 GA 3, 17 pts, form WDDWW). Last five: H Genoa CFC 2-0 (W), A Como 1907 0-0 (D), H FC Internazionale Milano 2-2 (D), A Torino FC 2-0 (W), H Atalanta BC 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.50, defence 0.71 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-15 SSC Napoli 2-2 AS Roma; 2025-11-30 AS Roma 0-1 SSC Napoli.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.05 vs 1.42; home 27.8% · draw 26.6% · away 45.5%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 44.8%; both teams to score 49.2%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-23 05:17 UTC): home 2.8 · draw 3.35 · away 2.5; over/under 2.5: 1.88/1.91.