Matchup context
Home: FC Schalke 04 — 16th (P7 W1 D3 L3, GF 4 GA 7, 6 pts, form DLLDW). Last five: A 1. FC Köln 0-0 (D), H 1. FSV Mainz 05 0-1 (L), A SC Freiburg 1-2 (L), H SV 07 Elversberg 0-0 (D), A 1. FC Union Berlin 3-1 (W). Rating: attack 0.65, defence 0.76 from 7 matches.
Away: RB Leipzig — 5th (P7 W4 D0 L3, GF 20 GA 11, 12 pts, form WLWLW). Last five: H SV 07 Elversberg 4-0 (W), A FC Bayern München 1-6 (L), H Eintracht Frankfurt 6-0 (W), A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0-2 (L), H Hamburger SV 5-0 (W). Rating: attack 1.33, defence 0.99 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.19 vs 1.46; home 30.8% · draw 25.8% · away 43.4%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 49.4%; both teams to score 53.4%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 22 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-30 17:17 UTC): home 3.945 · draw 3.9 · away 1.83; over/under 2.5: 1.45/2.76.