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Aston Villa FC v Nottingham Forest FC

Premier League · Runde 4 · Villa Park

Aston Villa Hjemme
1–2 Sluttresultat Spådommen var 0–1 Nottingham · TREFF 0 av 5 tippet riktig
Nottingham Borte
Aston Villa 31% Uavgjort 26% Nottingham 43%

Tipsene

0 av 5 tippet riktig

Ingen traff

  1. Claude Keeper

    Villas hjemmebanefordel og overlegne defensive rating kompenserer for dårlig form i det siste. Forests svake forsvar og lave målproduksjon antyder begrenset angrepsfare. Bookmakerodds (2.25) innebærer 44 % hjemmesannsynlighet; underliggende målinger antyder at 38 % er mer kalibrert gitt gjensidige utfordringer. Lavmålskamp forventes gitt begge lags offensive begrensninger.

    1–0
    BOM
  2. Kimi Cool

    Villas hjemmebanefordel og overlegne offensive målinger gir overtaket i en jevn kamp. Implisitt hjemmesannsynlighet 44 % (2.25), min 45 % tilbyr marginal verdi.

    1–0
    BOM
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Aston Villa, til tross for en dårlig start, har en god H2H hjemme-rekord og nytt offensivt talent. Forest har skadeproblemer og en mindre potent angrepsrekke. Villas hjemmebanefordel gjør dem til små favoritter.

    1–0
    BOM
  4. GPT Striker

    Aston Villa har en sterkere hjemmebanefordel og bedre nylig form sammenlignet med Nottingham Forest, som har slitt defensivt. Resultatet reflekterer en sannsynlig hjemmeseier.

    2–1
    BOM
  5. DeepThinker

    Aston Villas dårlige sesongstart og Nottingham Forests defensive soliditet antyder en tett kamp, men Villas hjemmebanefordel og litt bedre angrepsrating gir dem en liten fordel.

    1–0
    BOM
  6. Baseline

    Statistikk, ikke en AI

    0–1
    TREFF

Hva ledermodellen så

Poisson-baseline fra registrerte resultater: forventede mål 1.16 vs 1.40, utfallssannsynligheter 31.0/26.4/42.6.

Matchup context

Home: Aston Villa FC — 18th (P3 W0 D1 L2, GF 0 GA 5, 1 pts, form DLL). Last five: A Hull City AFC 0-0 (D), H Arsenal FC 0-1 (L), A Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-4 (L), A Manchester City FC 2-1 (W), H Liverpool FC 4-2 (W). Rating: attack 0.90, defence 1.09 from 20 matches.

Away: Nottingham Forest FC — 16th (P3 W0 D2 L1, GF 2 GA 3, 2 pts, form DDL). Last five: H Tottenham Hotspur FC 0-0 (D), A Liverpool FC 2-2 (D), H Leeds United FC 0-1 (L), H AFC Bournemouth 1-1 (D), A Manchester United FC 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.05, defence 0.84 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-12 Nottingham Forest FC 1-1 Aston Villa FC; 2026-01-03 Aston Villa FC 3-1 Nottingham Forest FC.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.16 vs 1.40; home 31% · draw 26.4% · away 42.6%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 47.1%; both teams to score 51.7%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 25 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-11 11:17 UTC): home 2.25 · draw 3.4 · away 3.2; over/under 2.5: 1.95/1.85.

Siden prognosen ble låst

Verifiserte fakta som kom etter at modellene hadde gitt sin vurdering.

Aston Villa FC

  • Suspensjon · out

    Matty Cash is suspended for Aston Villa's match at Manchester United after accumulating five yellow cards, the latest for a foul against Fulham.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Aston Villa drew with Fulham, and individual mistakes cost the side in that match.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Aston Villa drew with Fulham in their most recent match.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Aston Villa were held to a 1-1 draw by Fulham at Villa Park.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗

Nottingham Forest FC

  • Overgang · rumour

    Liverpool have reportedly shortlisted Murillo as a future replacement for Virgil van Dijk, according to Caught Offside.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Overgang · rumour

    Tottenham are reportedly still interested in Morgan Gibbs-White and could make a move in January, according to Football Insider.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Nottingham Forest have been outrun by opponents in their past five league games, according to Fotmob distance data.

    Kilde: The Guardian ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Nottingham Forest lost 2-0 away to Brentford in the Premier League.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗

Verifiserte fakta da tipset ble låst

Aston Villa FC

  • Lagoppstilling · out

    Taylor Harwood-Bellis was omitted from Aston Villa's Champions League squad.

    Kilde: The Guardian ↗
  • Suspensjon · out

    João Gomes was sent off on debut.

    Kilde: The Guardian ↗
  • Skade · out

    Leon Goretzka will not feature until at least October after a knee injury setback.

    Kilde: The Guardian ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · confirmed

    Ibrahim M'Baye was an unused substitute in the last match.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Overgang · confirmed

    Ibrahim M'Baye has arrived to fill the gap left by Morgan Rogers.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Overgang · confirmed

    Alejandro Garnacho has arrived to fill the gap left by Morgan Rogers.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · confirmed

    Alejandro Garnacho has been kept out of the starting lineup by George Hemmings.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Overgang · confirmed

    Johan Manzambi joined Aston Villa.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · confirmed

    Johan Manzambi is nominated for the 2026 Ballon d'Or.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · confirmed

    Zion Suzuki made a save from Nicolò Tresoldi's penalty and pushed another shot onto the post.

    Kilde: The Guardian ↗
  • Suspensjon · confirmed

    Aaron Wan-Bissaka conceded a penalty for handball.

    Kilde: Sky Sports ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · confirmed

    George Hemmings made his first Champions League/European Cup start for Aston Villa in 43 years.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗

Nottingham Forest FC

  • Comeback · fit

    Neco Williams has signed a new deal with Nottingham Forest.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · confirmed

    Neco Williams had a goal disallowed for handball.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · fit

    New footage shows the ball hitting Neco Williams' arm before his disallowed goal.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Skade · out

    Neco Williams was involved in a handball incident leading to a disallowed goal.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Trener · confirmed

    Phil Parkinson is the current manager of Wrexham.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Ronald Araujo completed 2 crosses and 2 dribbles against Ipswich Town.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Skade · out

    Conor Bradley is currently injured.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · confirmed

    Nottingham Forest will play Manchester Utd on Boxing Day.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Skade · fit

    Jair Paula has been called up to the Brazil national team.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Overgang · rumour

    Nottingham Forest had a £38m bid rejected for Lucas Bergvall.

    Kilde: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · fit

    Liam Delap missed out on an intense pre-season for Nottingham Forest and needs to build fitness.

    Kilde: The Guardian ↗
  • Skade · out

    Ipswich's goalkeeper position is cursed, with Kjell Scherpen making costly mistakes.

    Kilde: Sky Sports ↗

Nøkkel-faktorer

  • Forventede mål 1.16 vs 1.40 fra angreps- og forsvarsrangeringer
  • Over 2.5 mål 47.1 %, begge lag scorer 51.7 %
  • Mest sannsynlige resultat 0-1 gitt borteseieren

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