Matchup context
Home: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — 16th (P2 W0 D0 L2, GF 4 GA 6, 0 pts, form LL). Last five: H Borussia Dortmund 2-3 (L), A 1. FC Köln 2-3 (L), A Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-4 (L), H SV Werder Bremen 1-0 (W), H VfB Stuttgart 3-3 (D). Rating: attack 1.02, defence 1.18 from 20 matches.
Away: VfB Stuttgart — 9th (P2 W1 D0 L1, GF 5 GA 6, 3 pts, form WL). Last five: H 1. FC Köln 4-1 (W), A FC Bayern München 1-5 (L), A Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 (D), H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-1 (W), A TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-3 (D). Rating: attack 1.31, defence 1.07 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-02 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-3 VfB Stuttgart; 2025-12-20 VfB Stuttgart 0-0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.98 vs 2.27; home 34.7% · draw 19.9% · away 45.4%; most likely score 1-2; over 2.5 goals 79.5%; both teams to score 77.2%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-11 11:17 UTC): home 2.335 · draw 3.975 · away 2.65; over/under 2.5: 1.34/3.2.