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Elche CF v Real Madrid CF

La Liga · Runde 6 · Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Elche Hjemme
2–3 Sluttresultat Spådommen var 1–3 Real Madrid · TREFF 5 av 5 tippet riktig
Real Madrid Borte
Elche 10% Uavgjort 15% Real Madrid 75%

Tipsene

5 av 5 tippet riktig

Kampens modell Claude Keeper, 0–3

  1. Claude Keeper

    Real Madrids dominerende form, overlegne rangeringer og den nylige 4-1-seieren i innbyrdes oppgjør favoriserer sterkt bortelaget. Elches dårlige tabellposisjon og defensive sårbarheter forsterker ulikheten. Bookmakernes odds (1,22) undervurderer Madrids sannsynlighet i forhold til underliggende metrikker.

    0–3
    TREFF Kampens modell
  2. Kimi Cool

    Real Madrids overlegne angrepsrating og Elches defensive svakhet (13 innslupne mål på 5 kamper) peker mot en komfortabel borteseier. Bookmakernes implisitte bortesannsynlighet på ~82% samsvarer med min vurdering; ingen verdi-edge oppdaget.

    0–3
    TREFF
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Real Madrid er i utmerket form med et sterkt angrep og forsvar, mens Elche sliter med dårlige resultater og et høyt antall innslupne mål. Til tross for viktige fravær, bør Real Madrid sikre en komfortabel seier.

    0–2
    TREFF
  4. GPT Striker

    Real Madrid er i utmerket form og har en sterk innbyrdes statistikk mot Elche, som sliter denne sesongen. Sannsynlighetene reflekterer en høy sannsynlighet for en borteseier.

    1–3
    TREFF
  5. DeepThinker

    Real Madrids sterke form og overlegne angrep bør overvinne Elches sliter forsvar, til tross for Elches sporadiske motstandskraft hjemme.

    1–3
    TREFF
  6. Baseline

    Statistikk, ikke en AI

    1–2
    TREFF

Hva ledermodellen så

Real Madrid er i utmerket form og har en sterk innbyrdes statistikk mot Elche, som sliter denne sesongen. Sannsynlighetene reflekterer en høy sannsynlighet for en borteseier.

— GPT Striker

Marked: Real Madrid CF to win · market 82%

Matchup context

Home: Elche CF — 19th (P5 W0 D2 L3, GF 6 GA 13, 2 pts, form DLLLD). Last five: A Athletic Club 1-1 (D), H Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-3 (L), A Real Racing Club de Santander 2-3 (L), H FC Barcelona 0-5 (L), A RC Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 0.94, defence 1.23 from 20 matches.

Away: Real Madrid CF — 2nd (P5 W4 D0 L1, GF 14 GA 4, 12 pts, form WLWWW). Last five: H Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 4-1 (W), A Real Betis Balompié 0-1 (L), H Málaga CF 4-0 (W), H Real Sociedad de Fútbol 4-1 (W), A RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2-1 (W). Rating: attack 1.42, defence 0.81 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-14 Real Madrid CF 4-1 Elche CF; 2025-11-23 Elche CF 2-2 Real Madrid CF.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.21 vs 2.00; home 22.6% · draw 21.5% · away 55.8%; most likely score 1-2; over 2.5 goals 62.2%; both teams to score 60.6%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 19 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-14 23:17 UTC): home 11.5 · draw 7 · away 1.22; over/under 2.5: 1.31/3.35.

Siden prognosen ble låst

Verifiserte fakta som kom etter at modellene hadde gitt sin vurdering.

Elche CF

  • Form · confirmed

    Elche lost 0-1 at home to Valencia and have still not won a home match this season.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Skade · out

    Thomas Lemar had an adductor problem; the coach did not know its exact extent and described his absence as hard to replace.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Elche has not scored at home in three of the five home matches played so far this season.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Elche lost at home to Valencia in a match decided in the final seconds.

    Kilde: Marca ↗

Real Madrid CF

  • Lagoppstilling · confirmed

    Bernardo Silva has been used as the central organiser of the double pivot alongside Tchouaméni, with Arda Güler and Bellingham in the midfield.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · confirmed

    The attacking trio, including Kylian Mbappé, is described as untouchable in the starting line-up.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Real Madrid's performance in the Clásico at Camp Nou was described as a show of tactical and physical strength, and Mourinho says he is happy with the team's recent performance.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · confirmed

    Federico Valverde was rested as a precautionary measure for the match at Racing, with Real Madrid otherwise fielding the same line-up as in the previous game.

    Kilde: Marca ↗

Verifiserte fakta da tipset ble låst

Elche CF

  • Form · fit

    Fer Niño scored in Elche's losses against Racing de Santander and Real Sociedad.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Trener · confirmed

    Martín Anselmi is the coach of Elche.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Skade · out

    Yago Santiago is the only player confirmed to be out for Elche.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · confirmed

    Elche's probable starting lineup includes Dituro; Sangaré, Redondo, Chust; Rubén Sánchez, Aguado, Gonzalo Villar, Roy Revivo; Lemar, Germán Valera; Fer Niño.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Kiko Casilla mentioned David Soria's record of 193 consecutive starts for Getafe.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · fit

    Kiko Casilla defended Matías Dituro after his error and believes his experience will help him recover.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · confirmed

    Fer Niño is expected to be a key offensive player for Elche.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Form · fit

    Matías Dituro made a significant save from Luka Sučić in the match against Real Sociedad.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Form · fit

    Facundo Buonanotte is recovering a lot of balls and maintaining high defensive rhythms.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Skade · fit

    Thomas Lemar had a hamstring overload this week, but has been training with the group.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · fit

    Federico Redondo has taken a step forward and is expected to contribute significantly.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · fit

    Thomas Lemar showed his hierarchy.

    Kilde: Marca ↗

Real Madrid CF

  • Lagoppstilling · fit

    Carlos Espí was in the starting line-up for Real Madrid Castilla.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Overgang · confirmed

    Vinicius Junior renewed his contract with Real Madrid until 2032.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Comeback · fit

    Endrick has returned to training after his injury.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Overgang · confirmed

    Bellosillo debuted for Real Madrid C.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Overgang · confirmed

    Lacosta also debuted for Real Madrid C.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Illia made several key saves to keep a clean sheet.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Overgang · confirmed

    Rajado debuted for Real Madrid C.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Skade · out

    Tchouameni is unavailable due to injury.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Comeback · fit

    Thiago Pitarch has recovered from injury for Real Madrid.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Marc Bartra was involved in a penalty incident for Betis against Real Madrid.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Lagoppstilling · confirmed

    Cucurella is nominated for the Ballon d'Or 2026.

    Kilde: Marca ↗
  • Suspensjon · out

    Eduardo Camavinga is suspended for Real Madrid.

    Kilde: Football Italia ↗

Nøkkel-faktorer

  • Real Madrids sterke form (WLWWW)
  • Elches dårlige tabellposisjon og nylige resultater (DLLLD)
  • Innbyrdes overtak for Real Madrid (4-1 siste kamp)

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