Matchup context
Home: AC Monza — 15th (P6 W1 D1 L4, GF 9 GA 15, 4 pts, form LWLDL). Last five: A SS Lazio 1-3 (L), H US Sassuolo Calcio 2-1 (W), A US Lecce 2-3 (L), A Parma Calcio 1913 1-1 (D), H Udinese Calcio 2-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.11, defence 1.47 from 6 matches.
Away: Cagliari Calcio — 6th (P6 W4 D1 L1, GF 6 GA 3, 13 pts, form DWWWL). Last five: H Juventus FC 1-1 (D), A Udinese Calcio 1-0 (W), A Atalanta BC 2-1 (W), H US Lecce 1-0 (W), H FC Internazionale Milano 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 0.85, defence 0.86 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.27 vs 1.49; home 32.3% · draw 25.4% · away 42.3%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 51.9%; both teams to score 55.6%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-18 05:17 UTC): home 2.41 · draw 3.155 · away 3.15; over/under 2.5: 2.085/1.75.