Matchup context
Home: Ipswich Town FC — 10th (P7 W3 D0 L4, GF 11 GA 15, 9 pts, form LWLWL). Last five: A Manchester City FC 2-3 (L), H Fulham FC 2-1 (W), A Everton FC 0-1 (L), A Crystal Palace FC 3-2 (W), H Liverpool FC 0-2 (L). Rating: attack 1.08, defence 1.27 from 7 matches.
Away: Nottingham Forest FC — 19th (P7 W1 D2 L4, GF 5 GA 9, 5 pts, form LLLWD). Last five: H Arsenal FC 0-1 (L), A Crystal Palace FC 1-3 (L), H Coventry City FC 0-1 (L), A Aston Villa FC 2-1 (W), H Tottenham Hotspur FC 0-0 (D). Rating: attack 0.94, defence 0.91 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.52 vs 1.47; home 38.9% · draw 24.4% · away 36.7%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 57.4%; both teams to score 60.1%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-22 23:17 UTC): home 3.15 · draw 3.46 · away 2.26; over/under 2.5: 1.755/2.075.